Evidence for Global Warming


Source: NASA
Global warming stopped in 1998 cry the climate sceptics, they claim global warming stopped in 1998, however, the evidence points to the contrary. It is true that global warming did slow down after the powerful El-Nino of 1998, although, this is not unusual, there was a slowdown in global warming between 1950-1975. Global temperatures do not increase in a straight line, what is observed in the 20th century and now the 21st century is an increase in the trendline of temperatures. How do we know the increasing temperatures is because of human activity? The greenhouse gas theory is very simple, greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun making the Earth warmer. Since the industrial revolution, human activity is increasing greenhouse gas emissions, this traps extra heat from the sun causing the Earth to get warmer. Okay, so global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions are rising, but how do we know one is causing the other?

Mars and Venus

To find evidence of the greenhouse effect, one can simply observe Mars and Venus, two planets that are potential candidates for human colonisation in the future. Mars has a very thin atmosphere, 100 times less dense than Earth, meaning it traps less heat from the sun, as a result, Mars is freezing. The average temperature on Mars is -80 degrees Fahrenheit and it can dip below -200 degrees Fahrenheit. However, the opposite is the case on the planet Venus, whereas Mars has a very thin atmosphere, Venus has a very thick atmosphere. Unlike Mars, the planet Venus is incredibly hot, surface temperatures on Venus reach a sweltering 864 degrees Fahrenheit, in fact, Venus is so hot, lead melts on its surface. "Sure, Venus is hotter than Mars, but that doesn't prove the greenhouse effect, Venus is closer to the sun than Mars." True Venus is closer to the sun, but Venus and Mars both orbit around the habitable zone, so saying Venus being closer to the sun does not explain why Mars's temperatures dip below minus 200 whereas Venus is so hot, lead melts on its surface.

Humans only make a tiny percentage of total CO2 emissions

It is true humans only make a tiny fraction of total carbon dioxide emissions, our net contributions to total carbon dioxide emissions are around 3%. Oceans and biodiversity release most of Earths carbon dioxide emissions, oceans and biodiversity breath in and out carbon dioxide. If humans net contributions are only around 3% then why worry at all? Let me repeat the sentence above, oceans and biodiversity breath in and out carbon dioxide, meaning any carbon dioxide nature releases gets sucked back in by nature. The problem with human activity is that 3% doesn't get sucked back in by oceans and biodiversity, instead, the extra carbon humans release lingers in the atmosphere, the extra carbon traps extra heat from the sun, therefore causing a greenhouse effect. In addition, carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a long time, in fact, if humans suddenly stopped releasing carbon dioxide, global warming would continue for around 40 years. Not only does the extra carbon dioxide we release not get eaten by plants and oceans, since carbon sticks in the atmosphere, the planet would still be heating for nearly half a century. So "human emissions are only tiny" excuse is not so good when taking those two factors into consideration.

To conclude the evidence for the greenhouse effect is, in my opinion, indisputable, we can observe the greenhouse effect on Mars and Venus. Mars has a very thin atmosphere and is freezing whereas Venus has so much carbon dioxide, lead melts on its surface. In addition, global temperatures have increased since the industrial revolution. Admitted scientists do not know how much warmer the Earth will get and it is not fully understood how much natural variability plays a role. For example, the pause between 1950-1975 was during the Pacific Oceans cold PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) phase. What is not disputed, however, is that humans releasing more greenhouse gases will make the Earth warmer than it otherwise would be. 

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