The UK may suffer a "little ice age" until 2040

All the way back in my science class in 2008 I predicted the UK, Western Europe and North America would suffer colder winters until at least 2040. Since my prediction in 2008, the UK alone suffered cold winters in 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13. North America have also suffered record cold and snow over the same time frame as well, in fact, the current cold snap in the US prompted President Trump to mock global warming. However, despite Trump's comments, the cold winters do not disprove global warming, but they are a result of something very interesting going on that may result in much colder winter over the coming decades.

Low Solar Activity

The last time solar activity fell dormant there was a period known as the mini ice age (16th-19th century) which prompted Sky News to write this headline. Since 2008 solar activity has declined substantially with solar cycle 24 being weaker than average and scientists believe the sun may well be repeating a Dalton Minimum or even a Maunder Minimum. However, it is unknown how much solar activity impacts global temperatures, the mini ice age was mainly in Europe and North America. That's because low solar activity mainly affects wind and cloud patterns rather than global temperatures, in periods of low solar activity there is Arctic warming, but the jet stream moves further south allowing colder air from the polar region to reach North America and Western Europe. That's why the UK and US are suffering colder winters despite global temperatures rising.

Slowing Gulf Stream

The gulf stream or more accurately Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an Oceanic current that carries warm tropical air and dumps it in the North Atlantic, this keeps Western Europe and parts of North America relatively warm in winter time. However, the gulf stream relies on salt water, but the melting ice is fresh water, all the fresh water running into the North Atlantic will disrupt the gulf stream meaning Western Europe and North America will get much colder winters. There is evidence that the gulf stream has already declined around 20%, with the Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, the gulf stream slowdown could accelerate sharply, especially if periods of low solar activity are associated with warming winters in Greenland.

To conclude, I believe global warming slowing down the gulf stream and low solar activity pushing the jet stream further south will result in much colder than average winters for Western Europe and North America until 2040. However, I believe the new "little ice age" will be a regional event and do little to influence overall global temperatures, saying that, I think skating on the Thames in 2030 may well be a possibility once again even if average global temperatures rise.